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Home » News & Features » Urban Future (Blog) » Detail
Shanghai 2025
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City Beat
by nickland @ Thursday, 07 April 2011 11:40
City Beat
Local Blogs
Putting some numbers on the urban future, Foreign Policy magazine presents some
predictions from the McKinsey Global Institute’s Richard Dobbs, Jaana Remes, Charles
Roxburgh, in an article entitled Boomtown 2025: A Special Report.
“More and more each year, we live in an urban world,” they begin, noting that the world’s
urban population, presently a bare majority, is rising by over a million each week, and
already generates more than 80% of global output. Echoing urbanists such as Jane Jacobs,
they recommend a more “granular” city-oriented perspective on the world economy:
“Country-specific thinking may no longer be specific enough.”
Whilst attending especially to the rise of second-tier cities, the report has plenty to say
about larger ones. Shanghai figures prominently.
By 2025, they expect Shanghai to rank third in the world by total population and GDP,
second by total number of households, and first by GDP growth. Over the next 15 years it
is forecast to add 6 million households with incomes of US$20,000 (at purchasing power
parity), fractionally outpacing Beijing for international top slot in middle-class growth, and
taking second place – also to Beijing -- for absolute household growth (at 5.2 million). By
that time, only Tokyo, New York, and London will support larger affluent populations.
The full report can be found here.
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