In the crystal ballNick Land / text
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In the crystal ball
Ny Nick Land
Shanghai Star. 2004-01-01
Opinion writers should occasionally go out on a limb, so here are a few of my
predictions for the new year:
A resurgent global economy will provide a generally positive back-drop to the
events of 2004, with super-charged recovery in the US supporting growth in
all open economies. China will once again be the star performer, with Asia
remaining the most rapidly developing region. India will also grow strongly
and even the long-comatose Japanese economy will see its best year for
over a decade. The world trade picture will begin to look more promising after
a dismal 2003.
Terrorist violence will continue to darken the situation, with the definite
possibility of catastrophic attacks on the scale of 9/11, or worse. On the
upside, increasing international counter-terrorism co-operation will help to
bring the world together in 2004, with no issue proving remotely as divisive as
the 2003 Iraq war.
Instability and violence in the Middle East will keep the world on edge, with
progress proving frustratingly slow amid numerous nasty shocks. Israel will
concentrate upon building its security wall, which will improve its tactical
situation by decreasing Palestinian attacks, although strategic dead-lock will
persist. The US-led coalition in Iraq will attempt to smooth the "Iraqification"
of the new regime (handing over power to a fragile local government in the
summer). Worries about the integrity of the country, especially concerning
Sunni-Shi'ite tensions, will pre-occupy the region. Many Mid-East states,
Saudi Arabia in particular, will have a difficult - even terrifying - 2004.
The North Korean crisis will also defy easy solution, despite intensifying
engagement by its neighbouring Asian governments (China and Japan in
particular). Simply preventing a catastrophe on the peninsula will demand
determined and imaginative diplomacy. Feeling overstretched and short of
workable ideas, the US will be keen for others to take the lead in northern
Asia in 2004.
The world will see a rash of elections in 2004, with incumbents generally
favoured. In the US, George W. Bush will decisively defeat Howard Dean in
November, with his fellow conservative John Howard winning in Australia.
Canada's new Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin will also comfortably retain
power, while in India the BJP-led National Alliance will easily see off a
disorganized challenge by the opposition Congress party. A crucial election in
Indonesia, on the other hand, is likely to usher in a new government to deal
with that nation's unenviable problems.
The situation in Pakistan will test the world's nerves in 2004, with President
Musharraf's government remaining under immense pressure from Islamist
terrorism allied to neighbouring Afghanistan's deposed Taliban regime. As
with the international terrorist threat more widely, the world's great powers will
demonstrate a common interest in maintaining stability in this nuclear-armed
and fractured country.
An expanded EU will struggle in 2004, wrestling with a toxic cocktail of
disappointing growth, structural rigidities, institutional wrangles and major
security threats. Expect at least one major terrorist attack on a European city,
growing popular protest and a rise in political extremism - especially over the