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by nickland @ Thursday, 05 May 2011 17:02
City Beat
Local Blogs
Cities are accelerators and there are solid numbers to demonstrate it
Among the most memorable features of Shanghai’s 2010 World Expo was the quintet of
‘Theme Pavilions’ designed to facilitate exploration of the city in general (in keeping with
the urban-oriented theme of the event: ‘Better City, Better Life’). Whilst many international
participants succumbed to facile populism in their national pavilions, these Theme
Pavilions maintained an impressively high-minded tone.
Most remarkable of all for philosophical penetration was the Urban Being Pavilion, with its
exhibition devoted to the question: what kind of thing is a city? Infrastructural networks
received especially focused scrutiny. Pipes, cables, conduits, and transport arteries
compose intuitively identifiable systems – higher-level wholes – that strongly indicate the
existence of an individualized, complex being. The conclusion was starkly inescapable: a
city is more than just an aggregated mass. It is a singular, coherent entity, deserving of its
proper – even personal – name, and not unreasonably conceived as a composite ‘life-form’
(if not exactly an ‘organism’).
Such intuitions, however plausible, do not suffice in themselves to establish the city as a
rigorously-defined scientific object. “[D]espite much historical evidence that cities are the
principle engines of innovation and economic growth, a quantitative, predictive theory for
understanding their dynamics and organization and estimating their future trajectory and
stability remains elusive,” remark Luís M. A. Bettencourt, José Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian
Kühnert, and Geoffrey B. West, in their prelude to a 2007 paper that has done more than
any other to remedy the deficit: 'Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities'.
In this paper, the authors identify mathematical patterns that are at once distinctive to the
urban phenomenon and generally applicable to it. They thus isolate the object of an
emerging urban science, and outline its initial features, claiming that: “the social
organization and dynamics relating urbanization to economic development and knowledge
creation, among other social activities, are very general and appear as nontrivial
quantitative regularities common to all cities, across urban systems.”
Noting that cities have often been analogized to biological systems, the paper extracts the
principle supporting the comparison. “Remarkably, almost all physiological characteristics
of biological organisms scale with body mass … as a power law whose exponent is
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typically a multiple of 1/4 (which generalizes to 1/(d +1) in d-dimensions).” These relatively stable
biological features, such as metabolic rates, life spans, and maturation periods, to be anticipated
confidence given body mass alone. Furthermore, they conform to an elegant series of theoretical
nothing beyond the abstract organizational constraints of n-dimensional space:
“Highly complex, self-sustaining structures, whether cells, organisms, or cities, require close integ
of constituent units that need efficient servicing. To accomplish this integration, life at all scales i
space-filling, hierarchical branching networks, which grow with the size of the organism as uniqu
self-similar structures. Because these networks, e.g., the vascular systems of animals and plants,
energy is delivered to functional terminal units (cells), they set the pace of physiological processe
size of the organism. Thus, the self-similar nature of resource distribution networks, common to
basis for a quantitative, predictive theory of biological structure and dynamics, despite much exte
and form.”
If cities are in certain respects meta- or super-organisms, however, they are also the inverse. Meta
organisms. As biological systems scale up, they slow down, at a mathematically predictable rate.
as they grow. Something approximating to the fundamental law of urban reality is thus exposed:
The paper quantifies its findings, based on a substantial base of city data (with US cities over-repr
‘scaling exponent’ (or ‘β‘, beta) that defines the regular correlation between urban scale and the f
A beta of one corresponds to linear correlation (of a variable to city size). For instance, housing s
constantly proportional to population across all urban scales, is found – unsurprisingly – to have
A beta of less than one indicates consistent economy to scale. Such economies are found systema
networks, exemplified by gasoline stations (β = 0.77), gasoline sales (β = 0.79), length of electric
surface (β = 0.83). The sub-linear correlation of resource costs to urban scale makes city life incre
metropolitan intensity soars.
A beta of greater than one indicates increasing returns to scale. Factors exhibiting this pattern inc
patents’β = 1.27, ‘inventors’ β = 1.25), wealth creation (e.g. ‘GDP’ β = 1.15, wages β = 1.12), but
β = 1.23), and serious crimes (β = 1.16). Urban growth is accompanied by a super-linear rise in op
interaction, whether productive, infectious, or malicious. More is not only better, it’s much better
worse).
“Our analysis suggests uniquely human social dynamics that transcend biology and redefine meta
Open-ended wealth and knowledge creation require the pace of life to increase with organization
institutions to adapt at a continually accelerating rate to avoid stagnation or potential crises. Thes
generalize to other social organizations, such as corporations and businesses, potentially explain
necessitates an accelerating treadmill of dynamical cycles of innovation.”
Bigger city, faster life.
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